Hurricanes In The Atlantic Ocean – Hurricane Elsa formed over Atlantic waters west of the Caribbean island of Barbados early Friday. A day after the system became the fifth storm of 2021, forecasters expect the storm to reach hurricane strength. Continuing to follow Elsa After bringing heavy rain, strong winds and dangerous seas across the Caribbean this weekend, It is expected to arrive in the United States next week.
Elsa will bring hurricane conditions to the Windward Islands on Friday morning. As it moved west-northwest at 29 mph at 11 a.m. EDT, Elsa’s center was moving near the islands of St. Vincent and St. Lucia. And the storm was 675 miles southeast of Santo Domingo, the capital of the Dominican Republic.
Hurricanes In The Atlantic Ocean
The system is expected to move in a west-northwest direction across the Caribbean. And it remains a hurricane as it approaches Hispaniola and Jamaica this weekend.
Hurricanes In The Atlantic Ocean Shown From Space. Elements Of This Illustration Are Furnished By Nasa Stock Illustration
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said a hurricane warning was issued for Barbados. Saint Vincent and the Grenadines and Saint Lucia Barbados recorded wind gusts of 74 mph. and maximum wind gusts of 86 mph, the NHC said.
The hurricane is moving from Port-au-Prince. south of haiti Entering the southern border of the Dominican Republic
Elsa developed into a tropical storm early Thursday morning. About halfway between the Leeward Islands and the coast of Africa. and set a new record in the Atlantic Forming in the early hours of July 1, Elsa toppled Tropical Storm Edward 2020. It is the first E-designated storm in the Atlantic basin. Edouard formed on July 6, 2020. The 2020 season has a record number of 30 storms.
Hurricane Elsa Develops In The Atlantic Near Barbados
Worsening conditions are expected in most parts of the southern Windward Islands and the Leeward Islands on Friday, said senior meteorologist Adam Doti.
“During Friday and Friday nights Heaviest 2-4 inches of rainfall will occur across the Windward Islands with a Local StormMax™ of 8 inches. Storm paths include Barbados, St. Vincent. and St. Lucia,” Dottie explained. Power outages and flash floods are expected.
Because Elsa is expected to maintain a stable west-to-northwest route through the east and central Caribbean this weekend. Most impacts tend to move towards the southern United States and the British Virgin Islands. The least affected along the southern coast of Puerto Rico. These areas can experience high seas and high winds. And in the outskirts of the storm there may be rain and thunderstorms.
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However, this normal, slightly northwestern trajectory would bring the system very close to Hispaniola, Jamaica and Cuba, with the potential to have a significant impact. damage And it’s dangerous on these islands over the weekend.
The RealImpact™ scale for hurricanes is expected to reach 1 in the Caribbean Sea. The RealImpact™ is a 6-point scale with less than 1 point and a scale of 1 to 5. This rating is based on expected flooding. climb Destructive winds, storms and other economic factors another number
As Elsa became stronger and the forward speed of the storm slowed down. Rain and wind will increase. Because Elsa is expected to enter the Hispaniola and Cuba areas as a hurricane. The impact could be more significant than the impact in the Windward Islands. If Elsa is stronger than currently expected before it reaches the waters off Hispaniola and Cuba, RealImpact™ levels could also increase.
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The runway is slightly shorter in the north-central areas of the Caribbean Sea. Elsa’s path can bring the strength of the tropical system. The same applies to other non-tropical weather players. including the jet stream near North America. An area of high pressure over the western Atlantic Ocean. and the stationary front This weekend through next week in the southeastern US.
If Elsa passes through one or both of the large mountain islands of Hispaniola and Cuba, The system will weaken. If it follows between these islands or to the south, Elsa will be able to heal or strengthen the force. The water is warm enough to sustain and sustain tropical systems throughout the Caribbean Sea. However, forecasters point out other disturbing factors, such as strong winds or dry air from South America. May cause Elsa’s strength to be weak or medium.
If Elsa can move south of these Caribbean islands and move as far as the Gulf of Mexico. Intensifying hurricanes may develop and affect the United States. It is likely to move toward the eastern Gulf of Mexico at this point, according to forecasters.
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Although Elsa’s energy fluctuates But it doesn’t mean that the energy is completely dissipated. Tropical systems that have struggled for some time due to wind shear, dry air and land interactions can recover after several days.
“It depends on the exact path. Hurricane-force winds (maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) blowing through parts of Hispaniola and Cuba may be Hurricane Zaffir-Simpson level.” Duff. These strong winds could cause widespread power outages, he said. Heavy rains can cause flash floods and mudslides. Especially in areas where deforestation is cut.
Plus, there’s still some uncertainty as to where Elsa is headed. Although the route to the East Bay is the most promising. But it can move north across the Florida Peninsula. or even to the east of the Sunshine State
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Residents of the southeastern United States. as well as north of the Atlantic coast of the United States. They are highly prepared for the potential impact of Elsa.
“After this system moved through the Caribbean Sea, It will begin affecting the United States immediately on Monday night. Residents, visitors or those traveling from the central Gulf Coast through Florida and up the Carolina coast should monitor Elsa’s progress,” Doti said.
While Elsa’s exact path this weekend through next week is somewhat uncertain, partial rain, sea-creation and severe thunderstorms are likely to spread directly and indirectly north of the Florida peninsula. How the significance of these conditions could cause search and restoration operations to end following the collapse of a Surfside condominium near Miami.
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Local StormMax™ for precipitation in Cuba and Florida is 15 inches late next weekend. The area with the heaviest rain depends on Elsa’s exact path. But large amounts of rainfall, about several inches high, could occur far from the storm’s center.
“The major impact is likely to be not just the floods that have been raining. But it could also come from strong winds. High waves and storm surge floods in the United States,” Doti said.
Forecasters tracked the feature that became Elsa for more than a week. Formerly known as Investment 97L by NHC, it was upgraded to Potential Tropical Cyclone 5 (PTC 5) at about 5 p.m. EDT Wednesday before NHC. Let’s call it Wednesday evening Tropical Depression Five.
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A busy start to the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane season. Some meteorologists have compared it to the 2020 season, while others. This points to a trend that has been troubling so far this season.
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