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Most years, our special winter weather forecast is broadcast the entire weekend before Thanksgiving, but during the COVID pandemic, we won’t be able to this year.
What Is The Temperature In Buffalo New York Right Now
Don’t worry, because here are our predictions for the 2020-21 Winter Season, and the formula we formulated over a decade ago to help us make predictions.
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What you need to know There are several indicators that can help us predict what will come in winter. Overall, we expect above average temperatures and below average snowfall. However, storms and cold weather are always possible.
Last year, we were one of the few local or national agencies that predicted a mild winter with below-average snowfall, which ended up being true. This year we will use the same method again.
We consider three main teleconnections: ENSO, Eurasian snowpack, and NAO. We’ll compare what we can expect from this TV pairing this year and past years to find similarities. This will give us an analog year when it finally reduces to the forecast.
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We start with ENSO, which stands for El Niño Southern Oscillation. This is where we see whether the water along the equatorial Pacific Ocean is above or below average. If it is higher it is called El Niño, and if it is lower it is called La Niña.
This year we expect a moderate La Niña, with surface water temperatures around 1-1.5 degrees below average. Some of our comparable years where we had moderate La Niña are 1975-76, 1998-99 and 2011-12.
We will now see what happens in the Eurasian snowpack throughout this season in week 44. This is another comparable value that also allows us to know if a super cold air mass can form at the beginning of the season.
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Eurasia is where most of the super-cold air masses in the Northern Hemisphere originate. On average, in the 44th week, there are about 15.74 million square meters in Eurasia. km snow cover. This year, it is only 13.93 million square meters. km
This tells us that the probability of a super cold outbreak is lower than average at the beginning of the season.
One thing I’ve noticed over the years doing winter forecasting is that during a La Niña year like this, the NAO is king.
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NAO stands for North Atlantic Oscillation. There are two semi-stationary pressure zones in the North Atlantic. There is low Iceland and high Azores.
If this area of pressure is stronger than the average, we have a positive NAO, and when they are weaker than the average, it is called a negative NAO.
Now, the NAO does not change from day to day and week to week, but we can still get a general trend and imagine what it will be like most of the time.
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The reason NAO is so effective is that it is also a good indication of how strong the jet stream is moving across the Atlantic.
If the NAO is positive, it means stronger than the average jet stream and less chance of any blocking on the East Coast. This will prevent cold air from entering and blocking the cold.
If NAO is negative, the opposite is true. There will be a weaker jet stream and a greater chance of cold front blocking in the east.
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This is where the haircut begins. The 2011-12 season had a very positive NAO index of 1.37. We expect the same NAO this season, very positive.
Some weather models predict this positive NAO. In the Euro and CFS models, you can see the dark blue near Iceland in the image below. This would be higher than Iceland’s minimum average.
The orange color in the central Atlantic will represent stronger than average levels in the Azores. Both pressure zones are stronger than average, so the NAO is positive.
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There are additional teleconnections that we can consider, such as the AO (Arctic Oscillation), the PNA (Pacific North American Pattern), and the MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation).
However, I have found that the three mentioned above have a greater influence on our winter weather patterns.
Now that we have analyzed our TV connections and reduced our analogue year with similar readings, here are our predictions for the 2020-21 season.
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To be statistically accurate, anything within 2 degrees of average temperature is considered average, and anything within 5 inches of average snow is considered average.
After one of the hottest Novembers on record at the time of writing, December is expected to do the same. The average temperature in December is 30.1 degrees. We expect the average temperature above to be over 32.1 degrees.
Snowfall also looks below average. December is usually our snowiest month with an average of 27.4 inches. We expect less than 22.4 inches. In general, if we talk about winter weather, December will be less than usual.
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If there’s one month when winter is bad, it’s January. While we don’t expect any sustained cold, temperatures will be closer to average. The average monthly temperature in January is 24.9 degrees.
According to our forecast, the temperature will be above average, so it will be hotter than 24.9 degrees. With cooler temperatures and Lake Erie still open for business in terms of lake effect, we’re hoping for very little snow.
In fact, we’re forecasting an average snow depth at the top of more than 30.3 inches. Average snowfall in January is 25.3 inches. Plus, there’s a chance for a strong storm or two this month, so winter weather fans rejoice.
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However, in February, the season relaxes again. The average February temperature is 26.3 degrees, and above average temperatures are expected to return. We forecast an average monthly temperature above 28.3 degrees.
Snow is expected at or below average. February averages 17.3 inches of snow, and this year we expect less than 22.3 inches.
In general, winters will be warm with below average snowfall. However, this is still western New York and we will still get our share of winter weather, especially this year in January.
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Remember also that this is more of a trend than a forecast day here and there, and there is always a possibility that this rogue system will show up and dump all kinds of snow on us. If this happens, we will provide you with the latest information.
Please feel free to contact me on Twitter @Dan_Weather_Man or email me at dan.russell@charter.com if you have any further questions. Samantha Jo is a freelance copywriter, proofreader and social media manager. In her spare time, Samantha enjoys drinking coffee, crafts, camping, blogging at kinandkindling.com and sipping only the finest boxed wines – not necessarily in that order.
When outsiders think of buffalo, they often think of it as a place of endless winter and wings. While one of these things is definitely true (give us wings or give us death), the other thankfully is not. Contrary to popular belief, our season is like this
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Forever However, they are quite complex. Buffalo season is harsh, but they are part of our reality, and indeed, they are part of who we are. Here are 9 things no one tells you about surviving winter in Buffalo, New York.
If you work, live, or frequent downtown Buffalo, you know what we’re talking about. Step 1 to Surviving Buffalo Winter: Prepare for the coldest winds.
See Appendix A: Ice Machines. Vehicles parked along Highway 5 were spared the spray of icy water from Lake Erie.
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Take advantage of the days when there is no snow in the forecast! This will help you survive and stay sane during the buffalo season.
Even our meteorologists sometimes miscalculate the time of lake effect blizzards. The “Lake Machine” is gaining momentum quickly and can produce significant snow in record time. One of the first things you learn about surviving buffalo season is to always be prepared!
Try not to get your hopes up for a possible snow day here. The snow had to be heavy and well-timed to force most schools in Western New York to cancel classes. And adult snow days from the office? It’s not like that. But you can still try
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Repeat after us: it’s getting warmer. It will be warmer. It will be warmer! Single-digit temperatures seem horrible at the time, but warming is usually behind them (even if warming means 30º).
Another important tip for surviving buffalo season is to be prepared when you hit the road! Whether the pavement is dry or completely covered in snow and slush, the buffalo driver can’t be bothered. If you’re not ready to obey the speed limit during a blizzard, it might be best to stay home.
We know it may seem like forever, but we can assure you that spring is on its way. And it will be for glory!
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Buffalo has something special about the season. They usually take up space
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